Cultural Geography

Fall 2004

Chapter 4: Population: World Patterns, Regional Trends

 

Population geography deals with the growth, composition, and distribution of people in relation to spatial variations in physical and cultural geographic conditions. Demographic measures basic to the geographic analysis of population include the crude birth rate, crude death rate, and rate of natural increase.

Demography- statistical study of human population

Population 2004- 6.4 billion (80gh million increase per year) (2050 – 9 billion)

 

What will happen?

  1. Human ingenuity will prevail- defeat Malthusian cycle again and again
  2. Earth is a self-contained spaceship with finite resources

 

Cohort- population group unified by a common characteristic

 

•         Birth Rates

–        Crude Birth Rate- average number of births per 1,000 population

–        Rates of 30+ are high (agricultural, rural, less developed countries), 18- are low (developed, industrialized countries- around 11)

–        Roman Catholic/Muslim countries have high rates – birth control prohibitions

–        European countries- subsidize births to raise low rates

 

•         Fertility Rates

–        Total Fertility Rate-show amount of reproduction in population (more accurate) Relates birth rate to the average number of children born to woman of birth age

–        Rate of 2.1-2.3 is the replacement rate- replace parents plus adjust for child mortality, unexpected deaths

–        Fertility rate declines have been more expected and widespread than expected

 

•         Death Rates

–        Crude Death Rate (mortality rate)- deaths per 1,000 (20+ is high- developing countries) (10 is lowest- developed countries)

–        Mortality rates are reduced by sanitary and health improvements

–        Infant Mortality Rate- infant death under 1 year per 1,000

–        HIV/AIDS- 4th most common cause of death, to become world’s worst epidemic.  (40 million HIV positive, 95% live in developing countries/ 75% in Sub-Saharan Africa

–        South Africa- No AIDS life-expecency- 66 years, w/ AIDS 47 years

–        HIV/AIDS Web Sites

World Bank data: http://www.worldbank.org/data/

World AIDS Day: http://www.unaids.org/en/default.asp

(Figures from UN AIDs web site.)

 

Population pyramid a visual summary of the age and sex structure of national populations. The shape of the pyramid differs regionally and between developed and developing countries.  Shape also profiles events such as baby-booms, wars, high birth rates, etc.  Quick look at a countries population structure- age, sex and comparison between old and young cohorts- reflects social needs and services such as schools or medical facilities.

 

 

Dependency Ratio- measure number of dependents (old or young) that each 100 people in their productive years must support

 

Pyramid Example- China: by 2010 1 million excess males per year than females creates an imbalanced marriage market

 

China (page 106): 1970s, population increase consuming more than ½ increase in annual in country’s GDP.  Started 2 child limit, by 1980s, single child policy created.  Infanticide of female babies becomes common

 

Population Implosion- replacement level (2.1) of many countries (mostly in Europe) drops.  Results in a smaller share of young people in the population- Some countries afraid of ethnic “vanishing.”  Many developing countries experiencing ratios of 1.9.

 

Risks of Motherhood- Single greatest health disparity between developed and developing countries- maternal deaths per 100,000 births- 40 times greater than developed countries.  Much of this relates to societies where woman have a low status.

 

100 Million Woman are Missing (page 114)- preference for male children results in neglect and death for female children- killed at birth, denied food or medical services.  Gender testing results in abortion of many female babies.

 

Doubling Times: time if takes a population to double at current growth rate- 70 years at a 1% growth rate.  Developing world rate at 2% means doubling time is 35 years- exponential, not arithmetic growth.

 

J-Curve Growth = doubling growth (Figure 4.16- page 118)

 

 

 

The Demographic Transition

 

The Western Experience: four-stage demographic transition during which high birth and death rates have been replaced by low rates of both. The transition model may not prevail in all world areas because (1) the death rate has already been lowered without corresponding economic development; (2) emigration as a release for rapid population growth is no longer available as it was for Europe; and (3) existing populations are already so large that even lower rates of increase still mean great numerical additions.

 

Four Stages of Demographic Transition

  • Stage One: longest (98% of history), high birth rate and high death rate. Need high birth rate for labor intensive economies.  High death rate linked to high infant mortality.
  • Stage Two: Rapid population growth, with high birth rate and lower death rate due to medical technology and lower infant mortality.
  • Stage Three: Death rate continues to decline at low pace and big drop in birth rate.  Linked to urban-industrial society.
  • Stage Four: Low birth rate and low death rate.  Slow rates of population growth (zero population occurs when lines converge.)  Requires a highly urbanized and shift to post-industrial economy
  • New Trend- Fifth Stage: Death rates equal or greater than birth rates = a decline in population- rich, industrialized world- Europe and Japan

 

Figure 4.17 Four Stages of Demographic Transition (page 118)

 

Epidemiological Transition- death and birth rates decline in the 1860s- better medical, sanitary and health services curb epidemics of communicable diseases.  Shift from communicable to non-communicable (degenerative) diseases.

 

Changes in economics and child mortality result in smaller families- woman entering the workforce change the family structure

Level of development in a country is no longer revealed by fertility rates.

 

The Demographic Equation: combines the effect of natural change in population and immigration.

•         Population Relocation: in past, immigration was a population pressure release, providing new regions with in flux of needed population.  Today, immigration is not large compared to local populations

•         Immigration Impacts: Unbalanced groups of cohorts represent immigration (usually young, single men.)  Currently, woman are a growing component of immigration (going abroad to look for work to support families.)

 

World Population Distribution

•         Pattern of Unevenness: ½ of world population lives in cities (Europe and North America have same population with Europe on 70% less land.  North of the equator- 90% of world population- ½ world’s population lives on 5% of land (90% live on 20% of land.)  Most congregate in lowlands.  Continental margins are favored- 2/3 of population live within 300 miles of the ocean

The world’s population is unevenly distributed, with most people found north of the equator, in lowland zones, on continental margins, and (decreasingly) in rural areas. Four great world population clusters exist:

•         East Asia

•         South Asia

•         Europe

•         Eastern Anglo America

 

•         Ecumene: permentently inhabited areas

•         Nonecumene: uninhabited areas (polar regions, etc.)- 35%-40% of earth is uninhabitable

 

Population Density (relationship between people and the area they occupy)

•         Arithmetic density- (crude density) number of people per unit area of land (per square mile, etc.)  A very rough statistic

•         Physiological density- population divided by arable land area

•         Agricultural density- rural population o arable land

•         Overpopulation- not a density measure; it is a value judgment concerning numbers related to resources and environmental degradation.

•         Carrying Capacity- population that an area can support (resources, energy, economic activity, etc.)

World capacity- 65 of around 190 countries unable to feed their populations within national boundaries (Egypt imports ½ of its food- dependent upon international aid for food- receive 2nd largest amount of US aid (Isreal is #1.))  30% of developing world population unable to feed its populations.  China’s (1.3 billion people) wheat harvest had been steadily declining due to water issues while demand rises.  Japan- world’s biggest food importer- produces 40% of its food.

 

•         Urbanization- transition of rural to urban is rising dramatically.   Over next 30 years almost all population increase will happen in urban areas.  Urbanization often converts agricultural lands- look at Texas Blackland Prairie- now the heart of the Texas Triangle Megalopolis.

 

Population Data and Projections

 

Population data are not fully reliable, but projections based on alternate assumptions concerning them suggest that for some world areas, population pressures are increasing seriously.

 

Indonesia, Pakistan, India and Philippines: only 40% of births are recorded

 

Population Controls

 

Thomas Malthus called attention to the inevitability of unsupportable population growth in 1798. Neo-Malthusianism is one spur for national programs of population control, though demographic momentum assures continued growth for many developing countries even if stringent family planning is adopted.

 

Malthus: predicted that population growth is so much greater than food production that famine must offur to curb world populations.  If all countries consumed resources at the U.S. rate, the world would already by over-populated.  The U.S. has 5% of the population and consumes 50% of oil and resources.

 

Malthusian Observations:

  • Population limited by means of subsistence
  • Populations increase as subsistence capability increases (must be checked)
  • Checks are private (celibacy) or public (war, famine, epidemics, etc.)

 

Reasons Malthusian ideas have not panned out:

  • Role of technological change
  • Control of epidemics (better medical technology)
  • Birth control
  • Higher standard of living has not led to faster population growth

 

S-Curve- represents a plateau where population size peaks at a sustainable level. (Figure 4.30 on page 133)

Homeostatic Plateau- population = carry capacity

Neo-Malthusianism- related to government programs to reduce birth rates

 

Demographic Momentum- increasing birthrates due to the population pyramid of a country.  In most developing countries there are large populations of young people.  When they reach the age to have a family, the general population will rise even with active programs to control population increase.